Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Ford Field
Detroit Michigan
October 10, 2011

This is a very interesting matchup.  On one side you have the Detroit Lions who in two years have gone from worst to first.  On the other side you have a Bears team that was in the Super Bowl four years ago and is trying it's very best for consistency and wins.  The Bears are getting a little old with players like Urlacher and even QB Jay Cutler is getting long in the tooth for a player yet to prove he can win big games.

The country has Lion fever and it is well deserved. The Lions were so bad for so long that people forgot that they were even an NFL franchise.  They hadn't gone to the playoffs since the late 90's when Barry Sanders was the star and he even retired early because he was tired of losing.  The Lions are 4-0 for the first time since 1980 which also happened to be Billy Sims' rookie year.

Linesmakers have the Lions favored by 7 points and the over/under is 48.  For handicappers 7 points seems a bit steep.  This is because the Lions have trailed teams most of the year and had to pull off the win at the end of the game. They have had a few impressive wins though and some sharps that are betting the Lions are talking about a last minute cover where the Lions could be winning and kick the FG or score a TD to put the game out of reach. 

The Lions seem to be scoring at will and this is why this over is so high. On the Bears side of the ball you have Hester back in top returning form and a defense that is fairly healthy. But the defense is not good enough or fast enough for the likes of "Megatron" and Jahvid Best. By my estimation you may see a Lion victory here but a Bears cover and we are leaning toward the under as well.


Team records:
Chicago: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS
Detroit: 4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS

Chicago most recently:
When playing in October are 4-6
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing within the division are 7-3

Detroit most recently:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 2-8
When playing within the division are 3-7

A few trends to consider:
Chicago is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Detroit is 8-0-1 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Detroit's last 11 games at home

Next up:
Chicago home to Minnesota, Sunday, October 16
Detroit home to San Francisco, Sunday, October 16