Florida State vs. Virginia Commonwealth

The Florida State Seminoles take on The Virginia Commonwealth Rams in a basketball matchup tonight. The FSU squad is favored by four points and the total is 130 points.  Florida State is coming off a very impressive win against Notre Dame, a team that was better on paper.  VCU is also coming off an equally impressive win against a superior Purdue team.

Straight up these teams have similar numbers. Both have wins in the 20+ range and both have about 10 losses to their credit. They have reverse records ATS (Against the Spread). FSU is 16-10-2 and VCU is 16-20.  Florida State plays in a tougher conference (The ACC) so that is the advantage here.  Florida State also allows less points than VCU per contest, right around 5 points.

On paper everything is pointing to Florida State here.  VCU did beat Georgetown and Purdue, two very good basketball teams. So really they are qualified to beat FSU as well.  The UNDER 130 seems like a popular play with the experts right now. FSU games have gone 12-5 Under in their last 17 and six out of the last seven.  We are leaning toward taking FSU wither minus the 4 or a smarter play may be to take the moneyline to prevent a last second backdoor cover.  The public is pretty evenly split on which side of this game to bet. 56% has bet on VCU +4 and 44% has bet on FSU -4.  64% of the public has bet the under, which is the reason we are staying off the Over/Under in this one. It could easily go OVER.


Florida State is second best in the league in field goal percentage against allowing 36.0.


Virginia Commonwealth:
Team record: 26-11 SU, 16-20 ATS

When playing on Friday are 7-3
After a win are 6-4

Florida State:
Team record: 23-10 SU, 16-10-2 ATS

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of last 7 games
is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games

When playing on Friday are 4-6
After a win are 5-5