Oklahoma City really scrapped it out with Memphis. They took that series to the wire and it was a great series showcasing the young new talent in the NBA. There is no doubt that the series took a lot out of the Oklahoma City Thunder who start their series against the Dallas Mavs for the Western Conference NBA Finals tonight.

I want to get right to the meat and potatoes of how I feel. Dallas will win this series. Let me repeat. Dallas will win this series. The Thunder really deserve to be here and fought hard. But this is "the end of the road" to quote an old "Boyz II Men" record.  I can easily see a 4-1 series victory for the Mavs or even a sweep.  If the Thunder win this series, I will be as shocked by a sporting event as much or more so than I ever have before.

Don't get me wrong; The Thunder had a fantastic year. They were 55-27 straight up and 43-38-1 Against the spread.  Those aren't numbers to sneeze at.  Dallas had very similar numbers.  They were 57-25 SU and  43-37-2 ATS.  But the main factors I see are the fact that Dallas has played so very well in the playoffs and The Thunder have had to battle hard to get here. The Mavericks swept the defending NBA champion L.A. Lakers and have ben sitting there licking their chops this whole time. 

The oddmakers feel the same. With two teams with very even regular season numbers you would think the odds would be pretty even on the series prices, right? No. The Dallas Mavericks are favored -250/+210 to win. Even though they have home court advantage that is still a high number.  In fact it is a little inflated to tell the truth. But I feel strongly enough about it to offer 2 1/2 to 1 and fully expect it to pay off. Bet the series and take the Mavs.