Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks
Game 6
NBA Finals
June 12, 2011 - 8:00 PM EST


The Miami Heat are at home for the first time in four games and have a chance to even the series at 3 games a piece. I think the public is panicking more than the actual team is.  The Mavericks have played extremely well to this point. Miami has had their hands full no doubt. People in the media are commenting about the "dream team" failing and all this. But what they fail to recognize is that every NBA team in a "dream team". Every team has the best players they could possibly manage to acquire and all are professional basketball players who were stars in college or other countries. Lebron and company are more "high profile" and the media made such a big 'to do' about it.

The Miami line opened at Miami -6. Since then it has been bet down to about -4.5. The public is really looking at how hot Dallas has been and think that they have a great chance to cover. Considering that Miami is a strong road team and they just lost two of three on the road, this makes sense.  The total is 187. This is a typical finals game over/under. Everyone knows that NBA teams really turn up the defense in the finals.  The last game where both teams scored in the 100+ range was a bit of a fluke.

Overall, playoffs included, the teams are very even. Both are 72-30 W/L.  And Dallas has the advantage Against the Spread: Dallas (58-40-4) to Miami's (52-48-2). So what is going to give tonight?  Well i see it like this. Miami will be very desperate and they are playing in front of a home crowd that is excited and nervous.  They will probably move the ball more inside and stay with high % shots and avoid as many perimeter shots. Dallas may keep it close most of the games but Miami will pull away in the 4th Quarter and win by 8 or more points. Take the Miami Heat -4.5

BETTING TRENDS

DALLAS MAVERICKS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
Dallas is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
Dallas is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Dallas is 18-4-2 ATS in its last 24 games
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Dallas is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Miami
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Miami

MIAMI HEAT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
Miami is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Miami is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games at home
Miami is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games when playing Dallas
Miami is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Dallas
Miami is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Dallas
Miami is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas